Dominic D. P. Johnson is the Alistair Buchan Professor of International Relations at St Antony's College, University of Oxford. He is the author of God Is Watching You and Overconfidence and War and the coauthor of Failing to Win.
"A very timely book."-Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO of New America
How cognitive biases can guide good decision making in politics and international relations
A widespread assumption in political science and international relations is that cognitive biases-quirks of the brain we all share as human beings-are detrimental and responsible for policy failures, disasters, and wars. In Strategic Instincts, Dominic Johnson challenges this assumption, explaining that these nonrational behaviors can actually support favorable results in international politics and contribute to political and strategic success. By studying past examples, he considers the ways that cognitive biases act as "strategic instincts," lending a competitive edge in policy decisions, especially under conditions of unpredictability and imperfect information.
Drawing from evolutionary theory and behavioral sciences, Johnson looks at three influential cognitive biases-overconfidence, the fundamental attribution error, and in-group/out-group bias. He then examines the advantageous as well as the detrimental effects of these biases through historical case studies of the American Revolution, the Munich Crisis, and the Pacific campaign in World War II. He acknowledges the dark side of biases-when confidence becomes hubris, when attribution errors become paranoia, and when group bias becomes prejudice. Ultimately, Johnson makes a case for a more nuanced understanding of the causes and consequences of cognitive biases and argues that in the complex world of international relations, strategic instincts can, in the right context, guide better performance.
Strategic Instincts shows how an evolutionary perspective can offer the crucial next step in bringing psychological insights to bear on foundational questions in international politics. "Rich. . . . Full of insights." "Remarkable in its scope and fascinating to read. I hope it's widely read by politicians, military experts, and diplomats because it offers a variety of consequential actionable insights."---Daniel T. Blumstein, Journal of Bioeconomics "Johnson's work furthers our understanding of how adaptive traits of human psychology that evolved over the millenniums yield competitive advantages in modern times."---Ziyuan Wang, China International Strategy Review "Dominic Johnson has written a very timely book. Relying on psychology and evolutionary biology, he draws a far more realistic picture of human decision making than rational choice theory allows. It is high time that adaptive intuition take its rightful place alongside logic and calculation."-Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO of New America "A thoughtful, almost forensic, examination of significant historical examples demonstrating an idea that became clear to us in the Irish Peace Process-those who operate contrary to the laws of rational, responsible behavior often succeed better than those who do. This is evolutionary research at its challenging best, with profound implications for international relations."-John Alderdice, Member of the House of Lords "This excellent book argues that common psychological biases, generally decried as responsible for errors and misfortune, are evolutionarily derived and, on balance, advantageous. Strategic Instincts is original and important."-Robert Jervis, Columbia University
"Strategic Instincts is a fascinating application of evolutionary psychology to international relations. By emphasizing the often beneficial consequences of cognitive biases that have evolved over human history, Dominic Johnson provides an intriguing and provocative new perspective on international security. Anyone with good strategic instincts will want to read this book."-Jack S. Levy, Rutgers Unive
